CFK Weekly— Jan. 5, 2004
Connect for Kids Weekly -- January 5, 2004
Special "Crystal Ball" Edition
NEW ON CONNECTFORKIDS.ORG
**Teacher Quality in Lake Wobegon
Garrison Keillor says that the offbeat town where "all the children are above average" is in Minnesota. But Connect for Kids editor Susan Phillips thinks Lake Wobegon may be in Wyoming--where 99 percent of classrooms in high-poverty schools are taught by "highly qualified" teachers, according to state officials.
http://www.connectforkids.org/benton_topics1544/benton_topics_show.htm?doc_id=202418
**Talktime with Connect for Kids: Funding for Nonprofits
Building a better world for kids takes more than good intentions. That's why the first in Connect For Kids' new series of on-line discussions will give you a chance to ask Executive Director Cecilia Garcia for tips on how nonprofits can find the funds to meet their goals. Join the LIVE chat January 14, 2004 from 1 to 2 PM EST. To pose a question in advance, e-mail it now to jan@connectforkids.org
**New Challenges in a New Year
An abbreviated version of this Crystal Ball Weekly is available online, in article format.
http://www.connectforkids.org/benton_topics1544/benton_topics_show.htm?doc_id=202423
Celebrating Families Calendar
Celebrating Families is an online calendar of dates, activities and resources that celebrate culture, tradition and diversity. Upcoming January events include Humanitarian Day (1/15) and Healthy Weight Week (1/18). Sign up for our free Celebrating Families e-alert for more information.
KIDS AND POLITICS DO CONNECT
From children's health care to funding for child care, from protecting the environment to making college more affordable, there is a lot at stake for children, youth and families in the 2004 November elections. Connect for Kids takes no position on the candidates, but does try to offer the kinds of resources voters need to be well informed on the issues.
Prediction #1: It will be even more difficult in 2004 to get lawmakers to agree on what needs to be done to help families and children.
If you thought contentious politics stood in the way of improving public policies and programs for children and families last year, brace yourself for 2004.
This election year, lawmakers (and voters) are evenly and deeply divided over where we want to go -- and it's harder to find agreement in times of scarcity than surplus. Kids are likely to pay the price if Congress stalls on key decisions.
http://www.demos-usa.org/demos/debt_assets/borrowing_exec.pdf Low-income families will be left farther behind, finding it harder to get by, let alone get ahead
http://www.aecf.org/kidscount/databook/pdfs/e_essay.pdf Unemployment, low-paying jobs and high housing costs hurt low-wage families in 2003, and the outlook for 2004 is no better. Raising children itself can be a risk factor for financial instability, particularly when parents have low-paying jobs.
http://www.usmayors.org/uscm/news/press_releases/documents/hunger_121803.asp
http://www.cbpp.org/ctc.htm Several organizations track tax proposals and their impact on families and children.
http://www.connectforkids.org/benton_topics1544/benton_topics_show.htm?doc_id=159840#sources
http://www.cbpp.org/12-16-03bud.htm The White House is already working on its FY2005 budget, which will be submitted to Congress in early February. The negotiations in Congress will likely be on a fast track to adopt a budget resolution closely tracking the proposed White House budget and setting the overall federal spending levels for each of the thirteen appropriations committees.
E PLURIBUS PLURIBUS?
We are one union, but we are also many states -- with differences in social, economic and public policy environments.
Prediction #10: State differences, which can mean real differences in the lives of children, are likely to widen in 2004.
As more policy becomes local, public leaders and child advocates rely on state-specific information to monitor policies and practices, and their effect on children's outcomes. The advantage is that states can innovate and adapt policies and programs to their local needs. The disadvantages are that state policy and budget decisions typically receive less public scrutiny and discussion by the press and public, state resources are more limited than federal resources during a weak economy, and the complex task of gathering relevant, timely information on outcomes is multiplied by a factor of 50.
Child advocates are active in every state. Find out what's happening in your state -- from the impacts of welfare reform on kids, to struggles over junk food in schools, gun liability lawsuits and smoking bans -- by visiting the state organizations section in Connect for Kids' Kids and Politics.
http://www.kidsandpolitics.org/
RE-CONNECTING YOUTH AT RISK
The good news is, the downward trend in teen drug use and pregnancy continued in 2003. But the percentage of students who fail to complete high school is alarming. In addition, teens leaving the juvenile justice system or foster care often find they have no system of support during the difficult transition from a vulnerable adolescence to a productive adulthood.
Prediction #11: Several key reports, and an important anniversary, will center more attention in 2004 on a relatively invisible population: youth at risk.
The White House Task Force on Disadvantaged Youth is releasing its report (www.nassembly.org), the January issue of the Future of Children will address the foster care population, and the Pew Commission on Foster Youth will issue its report and recommendations in late spring or early summer. Other key reports on youth at risk are also in the works.
In addition, the 50th anniversary of the Supreme Court Brown v. Board of Education desegregation decision will focus greater attention on what's happening to students of color and disadvantaged students in the nation's schools. Expect debate over how to close achievement gaps within schools and examinations of equity as housing patterns and economic polarization contribute to the re-segregation of schools.
Prediction #12: The controversies over implementing the No Child Left Behind education law are likely to intensify in 2004.
The center of gravity is continuing to shift from the federal government to the states in setting welfare and other social services policies, but the balance of power over public education may be moving in the opposite direction.
Teachers and students will be struggling to meet the rising accountability standards, and parents and schools will have a hard time finding the resources to take advantage of the promise of the legislation: improving teacher quality, special tutoring or remedial help for students, finding schools to accept students wishing to transfer out of schools in need of improvement and engaging parents more closely in their children's education.
The fight over funding and how to define adequate yearly progress, especially for English learners and students with special needs, will be central in conflicts over how best to implement the NCLB provisions.
Get the full story -- and the context you need -- this and every week, on ConnectforKids.org.
PRIVACY POLICY
Jan@connectforkids.org
Special "Crystal Ball" Edition
Connect for Kids greets each new year with a look ahead at what are likely
to be the biggest issues affecting the well-being of children and families.
Here's what we see in our crystal ball this year.
NEW ON CONNECTFORKIDS.ORG
**Teacher Quality in Lake Wobegon
**Talktime with Connect for Kids: Funding for Nonprofits
**New Challenges in a New Year
**Celebrating Families Calendar
KIDS AND POLITICS DO CONNECT
**Prediction #1: It will be even more difficult in 2004 to get lawmakers to
agree on what needs to be done to help families and children.
THE ECONOMY: A BIG ISSUE IN STATEHOUSES -- AND IN HOMES
**Prediction #2: States will be pressed to continue cutbacks begun in 2003.
**Prediction #3: While the economic recovery is likely to increase affluent
accounts in 2004, most families and communities will continue to feel the pinch.
**Prediction #4: Children are likely to fall farther behind in the soft economy
of 2004.
**Prediction #5: A bad budget deal for future generations.
**Prediction #6: Expect more tax proposals that leave behind low-wage families.
HOW TO HELP THE NATION? IT DEPENDS ON WHOM YOU ASK!
**Prediction #7: The fundamental debate over the proper role of government will
intensify in 2004.
**Prediction #8: The weakening of the mainstream center will be even more apparent
in 2004, especially in national politics, rendering our ability to take action
as a united nation -- on behalf of children, youth and families -- increasingly
difficult.
REAUTHORIZATIONS AND APPROPRIATIONS: DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN!
**Prediction #9: Getting Congressional approval of the reauthorizations will
not be any easier in 2004!
**Dates of Note.
E PLURIBUS PLURIBUS?
**Prediction #10: State differences, which can mean real differences in the
lives of children, are likely to widen in 2004.
RE-CONNECTING YOUTH AT RISK
**Prediction #11: Several key reports, and an important anniversary, will center
more attention in 2004 on a relatively invisible population: youth at risk.
**Prediction #12: The controversies over implementing the No Child Left Behind
education law are likely to intensify in 2004.
NEW ON CONNECTFORKIDS.ORG
**Teacher Quality in Lake Wobegon
Garrison Keillor says that the offbeat town where "all the children are above average" is in Minnesota. But Connect for Kids editor Susan Phillips thinks Lake Wobegon may be in Wyoming--where 99 percent of classrooms in high-poverty schools are taught by "highly qualified" teachers, according to state officials.
http://www.connectforkids.org/benton_topics1544/benton_topics_show.htm?doc_id=202418
**Talktime with Connect for Kids: Funding for Nonprofits
Building a better world for kids takes more than good intentions. That's why the first in Connect For Kids' new series of on-line discussions will give you a chance to ask Executive Director Cecilia Garcia for tips on how nonprofits can find the funds to meet their goals. Join the LIVE chat January 14, 2004 from 1 to 2 PM EST. To pose a question in advance, e-mail it now to jan@connectforkids.org
**New Challenges in a New Year
An abbreviated version of this Crystal Ball Weekly is available online, in article format.
http://www.connectforkids.org/benton_topics1544/benton_topics_show.htm?doc_id=202423
Celebrating Families Calendar
Celebrating Families is an online calendar of dates, activities and resources that celebrate culture, tradition and diversity. Upcoming January events include Humanitarian Day (1/15) and Healthy Weight Week (1/18). Sign up for our free Celebrating Families e-alert for more information.
KIDS AND POLITICS DO CONNECT
From children's health care to funding for child care, from protecting the environment to making college more affordable, there is a lot at stake for children, youth and families in the 2004 November elections. Connect for Kids takes no position on the candidates, but does try to offer the kinds of resources voters need to be well informed on the issues.
Prediction #1: It will be even more difficult in 2004 to get lawmakers to agree on what needs to be done to help families and children.
If you thought contentious politics stood in the way of improving public policies and programs for children and families last year, brace yourself for 2004.
This election year, lawmakers (and voters) are evenly and deeply divided over where we want to go -- and it's harder to find agreement in times of scarcity than surplus. Kids are likely to pay the price if Congress stalls on key decisions.
THE ECONOMY: A BIG ISSUE IN STATEHOUSES -- AND IN HOMES
Public supports for child care, after-school programs, job training and health
coverage are largely dependent on state and federal appropriations that are
decided in each year's budget negotiations. Just when a weak economy has increased
need, the growth in federal discretionary funding levels for safety net and
family support services have stagnated.
Prediction #2: States will be pressed to continue cutbacks begun in
2003.
State budget shortfalls could begin to ease, but child advocates will find little
to cheer as state fiscal problems continue to put pressure on schools, hospitals,
libraries, health care coverage for children and families, child care and other
community services. State leaders proposing tax reforms to bring in more revenues
are likely to face harder opposition than those proposing spending cuts and
no new taxes.
http://www.ncsl.org/programs/press/2003/pr031223.htm
There is one bright light in this dismal picture. State budget concerns are
leading some states to delay plans to build more prisons, providing child advocates
with some grounds for arguing for cheaper prevention and intervention services
for juvenile justice youth.
Prediction #3: While the economic recovery is likely to increase affluent
accounts in 2004, most families and communities will continue to feel the pinch.
Most analysts say the stock market will improve -- but we (and many of the experts)
say the likelihood of under-employed parents or low-skilled youth finding a
stable, good-paying job will not. The well-being indicators for families and
children are likely to lag behind overall economic indicators, as job insecurity,
job scarcity or low-paying jobs with few or no benefits put the squeeze on young
families, especially those raising children.
http://www.usmayors.org/uscm/news/press_releases/documents/metroecon_111003.pdf
http://www.demos-usa.org/demos/debt_assets/borrowing_exec.pdf Low-income families will be left farther behind, finding it harder to get by, let alone get ahead
http://www.aecf.org/kidscount/databook/pdfs/e_essay.pdf Unemployment, low-paying jobs and high housing costs hurt low-wage families in 2003, and the outlook for 2004 is no better. Raising children itself can be a risk factor for financial instability, particularly when parents have low-paying jobs.
http://www.usmayors.org/uscm/news/press_releases/documents/hunger_121803.asp
Prediction #4: Children are likely to fall farther behind in the soft
economy of 2004.
In the election year bidding wars, commitments to strengthen programs and policies
for seniors will likely trump any increased commitment of public resources for
juniors -- improving schools, health care, child care, job training or social
services for families.
Fighting child poverty -- at the heart of the 1964 "War
on Poverty"-- is no longer a compelling political cause. After improvements
in the late 1990s, the nation's child poverty rates are still unconscionably
high -- much higher than poverty rates among the elderly and the population
as a whole.
http://www.chn.org/issuebriefs/socialsecurity.asp
For children, a soft economy breeds real hardship. Impoverished children generally
fall behind their affluent peers in school performance and ability to access
medical, dental and mental health care services, for example. Here's a look
at the demographics and impacts in 2003.
http://www.nccp.org/pub_gfs03.html
Prediction #5: A bad budget deal for future generations.
Even worse, while this generation of young people will as a whole receive the
least benefit from federal tax cuts and federal spending -- and they will shoulder
the greatest burden of the 2001 and 2003 federal income tax cuts, increased
security and military spending and the costs of a new drug prescription entitlement
benefit for seniors. Unless corrective action is taken soon, federal annual
deficits of over half a trillion dollars will persist over the next decade.
http://www.brookings.edu/views/op-ed/orszag/20031107.htm
Prediction #6: Expect more tax proposals that leave behind low-wage
families.
In 2003, some national lawmakers made the case that the best action the federal
government can take in a weak economy is to get out of the way -- cut taxes
and put money in the hands of taxpayers. They prevailed over those who proposed
jumpstarting the economy by helping states avoid cutbacks in social programs
and by tilting tax cuts to put money in the pockets of moderate-income households
who would spend it first.
http://www.ctj.org/pdf/gwbdata.pdf
The White House is sending signals that it will call for more
tax cuts, in the form of tax-protected savings accounts for specific purposes,
like tax-free college savings plans or larger tax shelters for private retirement
accounts. Democratic candidates have proposed rolling back tax cuts, or limiting
cuts to the wealthiest taxpayers. The Crystal Ball has detailed information
on both parties' ideas and proposals.
http://www.cbpp.org/ctc.htm Several organizations track tax proposals and their impact on families and children.
http://www.connectforkids.org/benton_topics1544/benton_topics_show.htm?doc_id=159840#sources
HOW TO HELP THE NATION? IT DEPENDS ON WHOM YOU ASK!
Whether it's making sure the air their children breathe is
free of pollutants, or that the system of health care they depend on is reliable,
families have a big stake in the outcome of the fundamental debate among policy
makers and policy analysts over whether ordinary families need government "out
of the way" or "on their side."
Prediction #7: The fundamental debate over the proper role of government
will intensify in 2004.
Lawmakers who believe the best way for government to help the economy, families
and communities is to get out of the way will point to encouraging signs of
recovery. Those who believe in trickle-down economics will tout improving national
averages.
Those who believe in strengthening the economy from the bottom up will point
to eroding wages and benefits among the low-wage and middle-class workforce.
Those who believe government can do a better job in managing the economy will
point to continued economic weakness, especially in job growth and wages, the
growing federal deficit, and missed opportunities for federal help in stabilizing
state and family budgets.
Prediction #8: The weakening of the mainstream center will be even more
apparent in 2004, especially in national politics, rendering our ability to
take action as a united nation -- on behalf of children, youth and families --
increasingly difficult.
Many worry that we are losing the political center, where communities come together
for the sake of their families and children and where political deals get made.
An unstable center can stymie government action -- or subject it to destabilizing
swings from one extreme policy position to another.
REAUTHORIZATIONS AND APPROPRIATIONS: DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN!
The year 2003 was supposed to be the "year of the reauthorization"
with many programs that support families and children up for renewal, but deep
divisions in Congress ended in stalemates that pushed many of the reauthorizations
into 2004.
Prediction #9: Getting Congressional approval of the reauthorizations
will not be any easier in 2004!
In a year with so much to do, Congress will also be hard-pressed to find the
time to do its work, and squeezed to find the resources -- with rising deficits,
increased military and homeland security costs and the baby boom retirement
costs coming closer every year. There is an inherent cost to delay -- it forces
programs to continue at flat funding authorization levels. On the other hand,
increasing reauthorization funding levels do little if the corresponding appropriations
are flat or lower, as happened, for example, with federal appropriations for
education and juvenile justice in the FY2004 omnibus spending bill (still pending).
Common in the contentious debates are differences over whether to tighten or
ease enrollment and other procedures (which impact red tape and outreach), where
to set the levels of mandatory or discretionary federal dollars, and how to
balance quality and standards with local or state flexibility.
Federal programs up for reauthorization include:
Other leftovers from 2003 include block grant proposals for foster care services,
housing vouchers and Medicaid health coverage for children.
http://www.kidsandpolitics.org/actioncenter.htm
Dates of Note.
http://www.cbpp.org/12-16-03bud.htm The White House is already working on its FY2005 budget, which will be submitted to Congress in early February. The negotiations in Congress will likely be on a fast track to adopt a budget resolution closely tracking the proposed White House budget and setting the overall federal spending levels for each of the thirteen appropriations committees.
E PLURIBUS PLURIBUS?
We are one union, but we are also many states -- with differences in social, economic and public policy environments.
Prediction #10: State differences, which can mean real differences in the lives of children, are likely to widen in 2004.
As more policy becomes local, public leaders and child advocates rely on state-specific information to monitor policies and practices, and their effect on children's outcomes. The advantage is that states can innovate and adapt policies and programs to their local needs. The disadvantages are that state policy and budget decisions typically receive less public scrutiny and discussion by the press and public, state resources are more limited than federal resources during a weak economy, and the complex task of gathering relevant, timely information on outcomes is multiplied by a factor of 50.
Child advocates are active in every state. Find out what's happening in your state -- from the impacts of welfare reform on kids, to struggles over junk food in schools, gun liability lawsuits and smoking bans -- by visiting the state organizations section in Connect for Kids' Kids and Politics.
http://www.kidsandpolitics.org/
RE-CONNECTING YOUTH AT RISK
The good news is, the downward trend in teen drug use and pregnancy continued in 2003. But the percentage of students who fail to complete high school is alarming. In addition, teens leaving the juvenile justice system or foster care often find they have no system of support during the difficult transition from a vulnerable adolescence to a productive adulthood.
Prediction #11: Several key reports, and an important anniversary, will center more attention in 2004 on a relatively invisible population: youth at risk.
The White House Task Force on Disadvantaged Youth is releasing its report (www.nassembly.org), the January issue of the Future of Children will address the foster care population, and the Pew Commission on Foster Youth will issue its report and recommendations in late spring or early summer. Other key reports on youth at risk are also in the works.
In addition, the 50th anniversary of the Supreme Court Brown v. Board of Education desegregation decision will focus greater attention on what's happening to students of color and disadvantaged students in the nation's schools. Expect debate over how to close achievement gaps within schools and examinations of equity as housing patterns and economic polarization contribute to the re-segregation of schools.
Prediction #12: The controversies over implementing the No Child Left Behind education law are likely to intensify in 2004.
The center of gravity is continuing to shift from the federal government to the states in setting welfare and other social services policies, but the balance of power over public education may be moving in the opposite direction.
Teachers and students will be struggling to meet the rising accountability standards, and parents and schools will have a hard time finding the resources to take advantage of the promise of the legislation: improving teacher quality, special tutoring or remedial help for students, finding schools to accept students wishing to transfer out of schools in need of improvement and engaging parents more closely in their children's education.
The fight over funding and how to define adequate yearly progress, especially for English learners and students with special needs, will be central in conflicts over how best to implement the NCLB provisions.
Get the full story -- and the context you need -- this and every week, on ConnectforKids.org.
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PRIVACY POLICY
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the Connect for Kids Weekly and Connections, periodically we may employ tracking
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http://www.connectforkids.org/information1537/information_show.htm?doc_id=9207
Jan@connectforkids.org
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